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This paper proposes the extension of a prognosis process by means of the integration of maintenance alternative impacts in order to develop a maintenance decision‐making tool.

The deployment of this extended prognosis process follows a methodology based both on probabilistic and on event approaches.

The importance of the maintenance function has increased due to its role in keeping and improving the system availability and safety but also the product quality. To support this new role, the maintenance concept has undergone several major developments to lead to proactive considerations mainly based on prognosis process allowing one to select the best maintenance plan to be carried out.

Studies over the last 20 years have indicated that around Europe the direct cost of maintenance is equivalent to between 4 and 8 per cent of total sales turnover. The indirect cost of maintenance is likely to be a similar amount. Thus, in the countries where modern maintenance practices have yet to be well adopted by industry, the potential savings from modern maintenance are massive. These modern and efficient maintenances imply identifying the root‐cause of component failures, reducing the failures of production systems, eliminating costly unscheduled shutdown maintenances, and improving productivity as well as quality. It means, for the companies, migrating from their traditional reactive approach, which is “fail and fix”, to “predict and prevent”. The advantage of the latter is that maintenance is performed only when a certain level of equipment deterioration occurs. This “proactive” maintenance is mainly based on prognosis process often considered as the Achilles heel, while its goal is fundamental for implementing anticipation capabilities. This paper looks into this issue by proposing the development of an innovative prognosis process integrating the modelling of maintenance actions and their impacts on system performances. It leads to offering a maintenance aided decision‐making tool cable of assisting the decision‐maker in selecting the best maintenance plan to be carried out.

The feasibility of this new prognosis is experimented on the manufacturing Tele‐Maintenance (TELMA) platform supporting the unwinding of metal bobbins.